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Division Series Odds

Division Series Odds

With the division series set to kick off within the hour I thought Id post the odds for each of the eight teams as calculated by a little simulator I wrote. The program takes into consideration the home and road records of each team, home field advantage, and the series format. It simulates each series 100,000 times.

NLDS Rockies vs. Phillies
Philles win 54.4%
Rockies win 45.6%

The simulator has the Phillies sweeping 15% of the time with Rockies doing so just 8.5%. It also says the series has a 38% chance of going the distance with the Phillies winning 61% of those contests.

NLDS Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks win 59.3%
Cubs win 40.7%

The simulator likes the DBacks odds more than any other team in the first round primarily because of their excellent home record (50-31) and the Cubs problems on the road (41-40) coupled with the home field advantage.

ALDS Yankees vs. Indians
Indians win 54.5%
Yankees win 45.5%

Both teams have exceptional records at home (52-29) and the Indians were slightly better on the road. Adding in the home field advantage the simulator likes the Tribe.

ALDS Angels vs. Red Sox
Red Sox win 58.3%
Angels win 41.7%

The Angels poor showing (40-41) on the road coupled with the Sox winning ways at home (51-30) are enough to push the advantage squarely into the BoSox camp.

Available link for download